Stuff That Interests Me

Lets get nutty and talk politics. It’s that time with an election around the corner, and time for stuff to piss me off. So lets talk about a few things.

One of the first things that annoys me is the political pundits that TV news has on who claim to be this crystal ball into elections. It’s horseshit. You have people like The Election ‘Nostradamus’ who has gotten 13 out of the last 14 elections right because of his 13 keys of bullshit. Or Nate Silver with 538, now with Silver bulletin who became a big to-do because he Predicted all 50 state in 2012 through his little website.

Who the hell cares? Like with Allan Lichtman and his 13 keys of nonsense. So you correctly Predicted 13 of the last 14 elections correctly? There have been 9 elections in my life time where I’ve been aware of them, and I have correctly predicted all 9. I’m 100%. It’s not exactly the flex he thinks it is. Oh you managed to predict the 1984 election when the mapped looked like this?

Color me unimpressed. The reality of the situation is Presidential elections are Rarely ever close.

In 1988 I was in Elementary school and they had our class vote for President I picked Bush to win. My reasoning? Idiot kids would say “Bush is a Bush” and giggle. To which I would say, “Well Dukakis is a cock”. That was all I had to go off of, but BOOM. Got it right

In 1992, I was barely starting to get interested in politics, but I did watch MTV and Late Night shows. And Clinton just looked so much better than Bush, plus the whole War thing. So I picked clinton to win. Boom. Got it.

In 1996 I was starting to get pretty into politics. The economy was going like a bat out of hell, the country was in a pretty solid bit of prosperity, and Bob Dole, was just an old creepy guy no one liked. You KNEW that the GOP knew they had absolutely no chance to win, and they were getting sick of Dole polling up every 4 years to try to run, so this was their toss him a bone and let him run so he will go away thing. A sacrificial lamb while they built up to 2000. So I picked Clinton. Boom. Got it.

In 2000 it actually shocked me that it was as close as it was. At no point did I ever even entertain the idea of Gore winning. This was the first election I was able to vote being old enough and having gotten citizenship. I voted for Bush. There were a number of things with Gore that bothered the shit out of me. Look, I believe is Climate Change, you’d have to be retarded not to. But he was so fanatical about it that is was off putting. But more off putting than that was his wife. She had been a pain in the ass for 15 years constantly trying to stick her head into how people live their lives and tell them what they should do about everything. She and and her cackling housewives on the Parents Advisory Counsel were just low life idiots that needed to stay out of people’s lives. The ironic thing there is how, like 90% of other things, how stuff has flipped. and now it is the Republicans that can’t shut the fuck up and tell you how to live your life around every corner. Although at least Tipper Gore and her hen house of morons only put stickers on Albums, not out right ban stuff like the Republicans do now. It was a thing of beauty in 1987 when Frank Zappa tore her ass apart in the Nightline Debate

But anyhow, in 2000, Gore just has no real stamina behind him. He was just riding Clinton’s coat tales. However at that point, Bubba’s shine had sort of started to fade a bit and people were getting sick of him. So I picked (and voted for) Bush. BOOM. Got it.

In 2004, that was a joke. That was one of the easiest races for the Democrats to win in a long time, and they dropped the ball hard core. You had Bush who everyone thought was an idiot. We were going through one of the worst economic periods of since the Great Depression Anyone who had stock at the time, remember how the stock market did? How everyone lost almost 60% over the span of 3 years? how for three entire YEARS, not weeks, or months ,or even quarters, YEARS the market was down.

Or remember Dick Cheney and Haliburton? The Fact 9/11 even happened, when Clinton had left office giving him a dossier that literally told him to keep an eye on Bin Laden? This should have been a slam dunk. But then then went on to put out the worst Primary field in the history of man. They had no bench, they had no legit person who was ready to step up. They had 4 years to figure it out and then sat in their hands. When the Primaries first started everyone was all Howard Dean Howard Dean. Then this happened

That single 30 seconds, destroyed his campaign. Think of how far things have devolved. When 20 years ago a silly scream made people think you are a lunatic and kills your campaign, where as now you can do literally anyone, and no one gives a shit. They threw other cat turds out there likes Wesley Clark, and Joe “No, Really, I Swear I’m Really a Democrat” Lieberman. It came down to John Kerry, who had the appearance, and personality of Lurch from The Addam’s Family. And John “I like to bang the nanny” Edwards. And that was the ticket. 2 people no one really liked, or gave two shits about. Kerry ran on a platform of basically nothing but Cutting Taxes and Increasing Social security, with no explanation of where the money will come from. This seemed crystal clear to me. Also remember how everyone hated Rich New England people at the time? Or rich people in General. Any fool could have seen Kerry’s shit didn’t play ANYWHERE outside of the North East, and then the 4 Pacific states. There was no fucking way he was going to get anything in the middle or south. And sure enough

I hated Kerry, still do. I predicted (and Voted for) Bush. And BOOM. Got it right

2008 is a Goddamn joke. Like 1984, anyone, ANYONE who thought Obama was going to lose is a brain dead idiot. You new a year before he was going to win and it wasn’t going to be close. Remember in 1996 when they just threw Dole in there so he would just lose and go away. Same deal here with McCain. He had farted around Primaries for 20 years and people were sick of it, so they gave the old man his shot, which the single worst choice of Vice Presidential pick, maybe ever. She was such a torn off, I ALMOST voted for voted for Nader. It was literally a last second decision to actually vote for McCain. I knew it didn’t really matter who I voted for because it was obvious Obama was going to which, which I said, and BOOM Got it right.

2012 is basically the same. This is also the election where I started to get weary of polls. Weird shit was gong on there. Anyone who was around then will remember that even up to election day all the polls and news were saying how it was going to be a close election and might not know the winner for days and head to a lot of recounts. Again, I knew my vote for Romney didn’t mean much, cause it was so obvious the polls were wrong and that Obama was going to win in a Landslide, which he did. Boom got it right.

2016. Ahh, the year polls became useless, and people started turning stupid. Many Many Many people picked this one wrong. And to the day I die I will never understand how, There is a lot wrong with this election. So so much wrong actually, which had lead to the nightmare of the last 9 years. The Minute the Cheetos dusted asshole came down his gold escalator politics has turned to shit, and people have turned retarded. There are 2 big things here, which anyone with eyes, and half a brain would have seen right away. The first thing is Clinton. Literally any other Democrat would have beaten Trump. Anyone. The big problem is that Clinton had an absolute ceiling. There was only so much support she was ever going to get. She was SUCH a polarizing person. She was so hated by a large majority of people. She was never going to make inroads with special groups. She was a known commodity, and a soiled one at that. There were no undecided voters the minute she got the nomination. People had been listening to her shit for over 20 years. And they a lot of them were sick of it. So much so, that 7.3 million people could not plug their nose hard enough to vote for her, and voted 3rd party. I was one of them, I voted for Gary Johnson. The second thing that people totally underestimated was how many racists, and stupid people there are out there. Trump ran a campaign literally on nothing but racism, just like he is this year. He brought the racists from out of the closet and into the open. It was a campaign run on literally hate. And people who are “I hate people with weird colored skin, and he hates them too!”. You’ll never grasp how many of them there are in the country. And oddly how many people don’t even know they are. Some of the most vile racists I personally know will fight you to the death that they aren’t because they just don’t understand that they are. You also had the stupid people who were all “He’s a brilliant businessman, he will help the Economy”

Two issues there, first was, 99% of the time when you hear someone mention the economy, it means they are just too stupid to think of anything else, or are covering for the fact they mean something else (racism). We were coming off the 3rd best economy in 120 years. We had 75 straight months of economic growth. Literally ever economic marker had a giant smiley face next to it. The second thing is, Trump may actually be the worst businessman in the history of business. Seriously. He is smoke and mirrors, he owns basically nothing, even all the things people thinks he owns, are actually either mortgages multiple times (Trump Towner and 40 Wall Street), or actually owned by investors (Mara Lago, where he only owns 17% of it, the majority is actually Saudi Owned) or doesn’t even own at all and just leases his name for Branding rights (Trump Chicago, and others that don’t exist anymore). The guy has bankrupted close to 60 companies and subsidiaries. The dude bankrupted a Casino. In Atlantic City. Actually 3 of them. You know how many Casinos have gone bankrupt in Atlantic City ever? 3. All his. As Well as Trump Resort and Casino in Vegas. Goddamn Vagas. Known how many Casinos have gone bankrupt there? Also 3. His, and the 2 others were because they were run by the mom which was using them to launder money and then embezzled all the money. You know if you go the the Trump International Resort that is in Vegas right know, know what the unique thing about it is? It’s the only hotel on the Strip, well technically it’s not on the strip, the parking lot is, the entrance is actually a street over on Sammy Davis Jr Drive, but anyhow, it’s the only hotel on or near the strip which does not have a Casino in it. Or even so much as a slot machine. Why is that? Because Nevada will not give the company a gaming license because there is CLEARLY some bullshit going on to have 4 of the 6 casinos in the history of Atlantic City and Vegas that have gone bankrupt.

The other thing with Trump was people vastly underestimated how many people do not vote based off, ANYTHING policy wise, but instead voted for him because they thought it was cool to vote for a celebrity. This was the single biggest thing in my mind. So many of my friends voted for him, people who didn’t know the first thing about politics, but they knew him from TV, and Wrestling, and Home Alone 2, and how he would be mentioned on TV shows all the time. Everything from The Simpsons to Hanna Montana.

But when it came Election time, if you remember, every poll, every goddamn poll, has Clinton winning, and winning by A LOT. 10-15% in some cases. Anyone who reads the New York Times will remember their on Election Day of likelihood of victory

The problem is this is the year polls died. Polls had usually been a pretty accurate of how things would go. But they had always been done either through Landlines, or person polling at things like the Mall. By this time not many people had land lines, and no one went to the mall. It literally wasn’t possible to even poll 80% of the country. So the responses were disgustingly skewed. I remember talking to people on Election day in 2016 and telling them, you’re a goddamn idiot if you think Clinton is going to win. Between her ceiling, and the secret unknown Trump voters, he was going to win. There was no way, NO WAY she was going to be able to pull Florida or Any of the Blue Wall. If a Democrat can’t win any of the Blue Wall, there is virtually no way to win unless they somehow steal Florida AND Ohio, AND North Carolina. So basically impossible. So while I didn’t vote for either of those Dipshits, I knew damn well Trump would win. Which he did. BOOM. Got it Right

2020 was basically 2016 in reverse. Trump had his wall. He had been an absolute disaster as President. I’ll even give him a pass for 2020 because of Covid (which he did a shitty job with). But his 3 years before that will go down as some of the worst in American history. The 75 straight months of growth came to a screeching halt when he got the idea of Tariffs in his brain. This isn’t the 1800s, Tariffs only work on VERY VERY VERY specialized small items, which we easily manufacture here. But this dipshit did it in Chinese Steel. Which NO SHIT, China turned around and put Tariffs on us. We are an Export economy. We make a lot of money selling to other countries. Yes we have to buy from them too, and some more than others, but when you do the shit he does, the other countries will immediately place retaliatory tariffs on you. Which they did. First, lets not forget the BILLIONS we had to pay to bail out farmers. One of the largest exports in the US is Soybeans. Who is the top place we export to? China. What’s the first thing they put a retaliatory tariff on? soybeans. I mean me PERSONALLY, as someone who owned a farm in Canada who was already supplying beans to Goya, this was AWESOME. Because China just bought all of them from other places.

And as far as those Steel tariffs bringing back American Steal worker jobs?

Still and Iron workers hit their all time low, even before Covid under Stump. There are 7 main furnaces in the US, we were down to just 3 (2 during covid, but again I’m going to give him a pass on Covid times). He said Tariffs would bring back the Steel industry. Every economist, and everyone with a brain said, IT DOESN’T WORK THAT WAY! And no, It did not bring back American Steel jobs.

But what it did do, was it turned Nippon Steel in Japan into one of the worlds largest steel providers.

And Trump was going to bring back manufacturing! But his steel tariffs force companies like Harley Davidson and Carrier to move elsewhere. When Trump was campaigning with when he was in Youngstown Ohio “I will not allow one auto plant to be closed on my watch”. 9 Months later it was closed. As well at 7 others. The amount of cars being purchased were dropping as people were buying new used cars instead, because the price of new cars became too expensive for a lot of people because of…… Tariffs! The thing Trump cannot fucking get through his mind is that Tariffs are a Tax on the people. 100% of Tariff costs get passed on to the consumer. THAT WAS THE WHOLE FUCKING POINT OF THEM 300 YEARS AGO. It was to tax the rich on their excess to provide for the lower class. When you put it on fucking everything it just makes everything more expensive.

More auto plants closed under trump than any other President since Carter. Again, this is all PRE Covid. No President outside of Hoover has done a shittier job as keeping America’s infrastructure together. He literally didn’t even make an attempt. He was too busy talking about his stupid fucking wall, and showing hot little he even understands about immigration.

I’d also like to point out, at this very moment, As you can see from the graph above, we have the most Steel and Iron workers in the country than we’ve had in over 40 years. We have all 7 of those furnaces buring for the first time since 1973. 51 years. How did Sleepy Joe pull this off? By not being a fucking idiot. You need to INVEST in people. Not just bully people and hope for the best. When Biden sign the Infrastructure bill, one of the things in there, was that for public works projects, in order to get government funding they HAD to use American Made Steel.

It’s not like Biden is any sort of genius, cause he sure as hell isn’t. This is the same tactic that was used by Obama, Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Nixon, Johnson, Eisenhower, Truman, Roosevelt. All with fantastic results. It’s common fucking sense. Ever since the Smoot Hawley Act lead to the great depression, no one has been stupid enough to ever try it again. I mean, Jesus Christ, you can go back to the Tariff of Abominations in 1828 that Tariffs haven’t fucking worked in 300 years. And the fact that this moron thinks it’s the key to everything shows just how stupid and the people around him are. Well, the people around him are too afraid to tell him he’s wrong because then he will have a temper tantrum.

Oh, and those 7 (well it was actually 11) Auto plants that closed under Trump and the 21,185 jobs that were lost at them (and 35,836 total). Every single one of them is back, and 5 new plants have been opened and over 80,000 jobs added.

How is that? It’s not like Biden is some sort of genius (again, he is not). Because when he signed the Chips act, it said that the EV batteries needed to be built in American Plants. That Plant in Youngstown Ohio that Trump was at, that was the first one that came back, with 800 more people than they had when it closed.

Again these aren’t difficult things. And what did Trump accomplish when he was President? Biden has signed 297 pieces of legislation. Yeah most are appropriations bills, like most Presidents. But there were 88 different pieces of legislation which were signed into law like The Infrastructure Act, and Chips Act, and CARE Act, and a bunch of others. But back to Trump. How Many did he sign in his 4 years? 71. How many of those were things like appropriations bills? 69. So 2. He signed 2 things into law.

#1: Orrin G. Hatch‑Bob Goodlatte Music Modernization Act (H.R. 1551): This changed the length of how long a copywrite would last for a music artist. Making it so it will take 100 years before it becomes public domain. To me, great law, the families of people should keep getting money for something people made. But not exactly anything super sexy.

#2: The Save Our Seas Act of 2018. S. 3508: This directs NOAA to clean up debris from maritime disasters, and sets safety parameters. 2 Interesting things about this bill. First, it was sponsored by Dan Sullivan………. From Arkansas. Not exactly the big maritime area. Second, this was passed in 2018, 6 years ago, and this is THE LAST bill that has passed unanimously. Seriously, politics are so messed up now that you can literally have a bill that is for saying puppies are better than explosive diarrhea and it’s pretty much going to be voted along party lines.

To make things worse, Trump and the GOP had control of the House AND Senate when he took office. That is when you fucking GO! Basically every thing Biden passed was during that time when he was House and Senate. But Trump had full chamber for 2 years, and got jack shit done. He was too busy sending 3am tweets about nonsense, and talking about his stupid fucking wall. Oh, and Golfing. LOTS of Golfing. And holding Rallies which made no sense when he was already President.

But anyhow, Jesus this got way off topic. When it came time for the Election of 2020. Everyone knew it was going to be close. The Polls again were way off. But this time around, it was Trump who had a ceiling. Everything he said he was going to do he didn’t do. Administration official after official, after official would quit, and every single goddamn one would say how is is an idiot, has no idea what he is doing, won’t listen, and is a dick. And he flat out sucked, and people were soooooooooo sick of those fucking tweets. To me is was crystal clear he had no path to victory. Especially after Warnock and Ossoff Pulling off multiple wins in Georgia, and every MAGA idiot (Kari Lake, Blank Masters, and all those others) lining up to get their asses handed to them. It was so obvious to me that Biden was going to win. Especially since, I actually bit my lip hard, and voted for him. The first time in my life I voted for a Democrat for President, and only like the 5th time ever I voted for a democrat for anything. At a certain point, you have to put Country over Party, plus, Trump is a grifter who is a wolf in sheep’s clothing and actually doesn’t have a single freaking Republican bone in his Body. He likes to call people RINO all the time, yet he is actually the RINO. Anyhow, it was clear Biden was gonna Win, Then people were going to play Party In The USA. And I BOOM. I Was Right. Sadly where I was wrong, was I assumed after January 6th we’d never have to hear that cocksuckers name ever again. But thanks to Mitch McConnel being a giant pussy, here we are 4 years later.

So that is with these assholes who are all “Oh Look At me, I predicted so many correct elections”. Great. Good for you, So did a whit ton of other people.

Now you also have the likes of Nate Silver, who because a Big To-do after getting all 50 state right in 2012. Dude, color me unimpressed, again, so did A LOT of people. There was only even one state (Florida) that Obama and Romney were even within a point of each other. Like 45 state or some shit were over a 5 point difference. This years election is going to be a lot closer, and do you know how many THOUSANDS of people are going to go to places like 270toWin.com and make their own fantasy map that are going to end up being 100% correct. It’s not hard when you have at minimum 43 states that are already spoken for. A Child could do it.

Now, lets talk about polls. Glorious polls. Useless, Bullshit polls.

If you pay attention to things like Twitter (no I will not call it X). People are OBSESSED with polls. And you have all the aggregator sites like 538, and silver Bulletin, and Real Clear Politics, and Decision Desk, and Crystal Ball and I could list them till my fingers fall off. These things are bullshit too and have become more of less useless.

You’re going to have some that are right (by dumb luck) and others that are way off.

Here is the thing about polls now days. Well, a few things. The first is, getting an accurate cross section of people now days is next to impossible. Polling people is hard as hell. First, most are still done by phone. How many people are there out there that answer a call from an unknown number? I don’t even answer the phone when I do know who it is. They also send Text Messages, again, how many people are going to answer those. they try to do canvassing at things like shopping centers, But you’re not going to get a cross section, you’re going to get clumps of like minded people. Then the WORST which things like YouGov, and ActiVote and a bunch of others, do them from Banner ads on websites. You’re going to end up you’re not going to get a real cross section from that. You’re going to have a huge problem trying to get an accurate electorate.

But now, things get even worse. Which I blame the aggregator sites sites for. Disinformation. That’s basically everything the worlds runs off of now days. And sadly, Disinformation is not only the main tool for the GOP now days, it’s the only tool. Remember the “Red Wave” in the 2022 mid terms that never happened? Anyone who actually looked at stuff analytically, knew it wasn’t going to happen.

The problem was poll flooding. And VERY blatant poll flooding. And it’s happening again this year. What happens is that a bunch of GOP aligned pollsters (looking at you Rasmussen, Beacon, Hart, ActiVote and a shit load of others). They have these GOP pollsters who flood the aggregates every single day with highly partisan polls. Showing the GOP person up by crazy amounts, which then compromises the averages. In 2022 With most a aggregate 27 of the last 31 polls were GOP aligned partisan polls. 1 was Democratic aligned, and 3 were A+ National polls. The ones you can usually “sort of” trust, but depends where they came from.

It’s happening again. 10 days ago Harris had was ahead with around a 4% change of winning (as in like 48% to 52%). But in the last 10 days that has basically vanished. Every day Trump cuts off 0.1% here or 0.2% there, to where it’s down to around 1.6% for Harris. the problem is, they are flooding again. Of the 17 polls added, 15 have been GOP aligned.

But even the A+ National Polls have a problem.

they are doing what’s called Heard Polling. And they aren’t even hiding it. They are weighting their cross tabs (I’ll get into that a bit) to try to make every poll basically the same.

If you look at a Poll and it says something like 100 people polls. Person A: 54% and Person B 46%. It doesn’t mean that person A got 54 votes and person B got 46 votes. Actually, it’s nothing even remotely close to that. Like I said I’ll get into that in a bit.

But basically everyone is fixing the weights to heard polls to make sure they are all basically the same regardless of pollster or where they are polling. No one wants to be an outlier and say “Well everyone else says the polls are almost 50.50 but I have this person up by 7” because they are afraid that if that person loses, they will look like an idiot. Where if everyone just says “oh looks 50/50” you don’t have to worry about being wrong because regardless of who wins you just say “yeah we said it could go either way and was in the margin of error”.

It’s a way to cover their ass, but it’s a shitty thing to do. There were a lot of pollsters that ended up getting blacklisted after 2016 where they were so wrong (not all, but some) and again in 2020. So in order to cover their ass, they do the heard polling and cross tab weighting manipulation.

Now, as someone who spent years literally cooking the books for a living. Seriously, I spent the better part of a decade literally cooking books. Having a narrative before even seeing the numbers, and then working the numbers to fit that narrative, I find this stuff super interesting. But at the same time, to people who have never cooked books before, no one would even notice. Actually virtually no one even looks at cross tabs. The thing is most places you have to really hunt to find them, in a lot of cases, you actually have to have some sort of account (often paid) to even get access to them.

I’m going to use TIPP as an example. These guys are generally considered at A+ rating. Well, they were until 2022 when they got it super wrong. But over all they have been pretty solid, but this year they are giving some wild ass results. And if you look at the Cross Tabs and the bizzare ass weighting they are going, it makes no sense.

So just a SUPER quick explanation of weighting. Like the simplest version ever. You poll say 100 people. You get your answer. But then you are pull a number out of your ass and go “meh, fuck 15 of them they aren’t going to vote anyhow” so even though they answered your poll, you literally throw them out.

Last week TIPP polled 1.079 registered votes in Pennsylvania. The actual real results were this

The end Result of this poll was Harris by a hair over 4%

However, then they took their knife to it, and they threw out 258 votes and said “nah screw those My magic 8 ball says voter turnout is only going to be 74% so we need to just delete 258 of them”

When they threw them out and weighted them, the end result was this.

Can you tell me what you see here?

They threw out 90.6% of the votes from Philadelphia. An Area that had 77% voter turnout in 2020, and broke 83% to 16% for Biden. Meanwhile they only threw out 9.4% from South East PA, and Area in the 7 counties there, which 2020 voter turn out was only 63% but broke for Trump by 16%. The end Result of the poll after weighting was Trump by 1%

Literally every single polls is doing this the last few weeks. they are taking giant areas that break HEAVILY in either direction, and just throwing them out to make sure the numbers are close. This is an example of throwing away Democrat voters in PA. But it’s not just manipulation on the Republican side.

The exact same thing is happening in North Carolina. Where they are tossing out heavy Trump areas, to manipulate a few extra points in Harris favor. If you look at most polls, which are going to be heard polls, right now in most of the aggregators, Harris is up a tiny fraction of a percent. Like talking 0.2%. But to anyone who understands analytics, and actually wastes their time digging into this stuff (like me) you know its absolute bullshit. Come Lection day Trump is going to Win North Carolina. And it’s not even going to be all that close. We’re not talking have to wait 3 days and maybe recount. It’ll be called by maybe 2am and he is going to win by a few hundred thousand votes.

Another example where this is being used (It’s actually being used Presidentially in all 7 swing states) but an example outside of presidential is the Senate. Specifically in Texas. If you watch the polls between Ted Cruz (who admittedly is a Trump MAGA piece of shit, even though Trump claimed his dad killed Kennedy) and Allred look SUPER close. Within a point. Actually some show one up by a point, some show the other up by a point.

Get the fuck out of here. We went through this before with Beto O’Rourke when he was going again Abbot for Governor. You can take your 1% and shove it up your ass. Cruz is going to kill him. Like not even close. This is freaking Texas for Christ Sake. It’ll be called within 2 hours of the ballots closing. In all of the pools I have ripped apart where the weighting made NO FUCKING SENSE, even if you weight it based off previous turnout in those areas and gender gap. It comes out to Cruz at minimum +3 every time. Depending on how you want to do it, it comes out to +5 a lot of the time.

Like I said, basically ALL national polls are doing this. And then mixed with the GOP poll flood where they show Trump up 4+ everywhere, even though it’s not even close to true. The polls have become totally meaningless.

You have to look at Legitimate Data. Cause all of this other shit is being cooked.

Now here is the thing, because of the asinine Electoral College, which even though I do not usually side with Democrats, I do believe should be done away with. Even James Madison and John Addams said it was a mistake. The whole point was to give Slave states more say (basically to count slaves as part of the population but not giving them the right to vote). But all it does now days, is actually takes away the whole point of voting for damn near every state in the country for anything Federal. There are really only a few states that even matter. And honestly, in this up coming election, there is just 1.

Not even kidding. It comes down to JUST Pennsylvania. Whoever wins PA is going to win. that’s a 100% guaranty. So for all 49 other states, your vote for President means absolutely nothing. There has been a BILLION dollars. Yes, Billion, With a B. Spent on this election so far in Just PA. You can actually add 45 states together, who has had less spent on them, than JUST PA. It kinda makes the whole point of voting nationally useless when there is only 1 state that matters. You’re really never gonna have more than a few. Even places like Nevada and you’re shitty 6 electoral votes, and Wisconsin with 10, and even Arizona with 11, can go sit in a corner. At Best it comes to PA, MI and GA. But realistically, it’s just PA.

Like I said, who ever wins that, wins. And everyone knows it.

So where does this election land?

This is the most confusing election I’ve ever seen to be honest.

2 years ago I told people, anyone that listened, that there was something wrong with Biden. He was clearly starting to slip. and that the Dems needed to do something. they needed to start amping up their bench, because there was no way he was going to be able to run in 2024.

I mean, it was crystal clear. anyone who says otherwise is either knowingly lying, or just lying to themselves. then after that absolute Clusterfuck with Biden at the NATO conference back in March. The fact people didn’t step in at that time and be like, Dude, we’ll help you limp to the finish line for this term, but you need to get the fuck out.

Here is the thing, again, a lot of people lie to themselves. But for anyone who has ever had to deal with a Grand Parent, Parent or any other family member who either has the onset of dementia, or even not that but just that point where you ruin out of gas, and there’s nothing left to give. You saw that in Biden. You had to. No sane person could have looked at him, listened to him, and thought “Yeah this guy will still have it in him 4 and a half years from now”.

On the one hand, I think the Democrats fucked up, and also suck for covering it up so long. But at the same time, I’m glad there were people like Pelosi, and Schumer who had the balls to actually go to him and be like, dude, you had a good run, but it’s time to go.

Because anyone with eyes, who is actually honest, can see the exact same thing going on with Trump right now. Look, things like dementia are SUPER hereditary in males. And he has a Long Line (Father, Uncle, Brother, ect) who have had dementia, which is all of them came on in their 70s.

There is no way you can look at him and not see it. the only way possible, is if you are someone who has bought into the cult and is willing to lie to yourself.

I literally, BEG anyone who thinks he is ok, to actually take 2 hours out of their lives, and watch one of his rallies. I’m serious. you really have to do it. You can’t sit there and watch things like FOX news where they “sane-wash” everything he says and cut all the clips of things to make them seem sane.

Because they aren’t. They are actually really hard to watch, and I have watched almost all of them. He claims to not use a teleprompter. Yet while basically none of his rallies are televised (Even FOX has to cut away when they try because he starts lying so bad) but they are all on CSPAN, and literally every single one has different camera angles where you end up seeing this

But the thing is, he is not capable is stating on script. It’s just not possible for him. He loses his place all the time. Or he ends up saying weird shit, or just totally mangling the words.

Also, like the worlds worst poker player, he also has, what might be the most obvious tell in the history of the world. He plays the accordian. Watch him. When he loses his train of thought, which happens after about 10 words, he starts acting like he is playing an invisible accordian. Hi hands go back and forth. This is an obvious sign of dementia, people lose their train of thought and use a repetitive motion to try to get back on track.

My Grandmother, who had dementia in her late 90s, actually did the exact same thing. She only had it the last couple years of her life, but she did the exact same thing. She would be passionately telling about something, totally lucid, then lose track, would sit forward and do that.

And another reason why I beg people to watch an actual entire rally, is that the things he says, make no fucking sense what so ever. I mean none. But for some reason the mainstream media, even uber liberal leaning ones, don’t even cover it. Like the last few days in his rallies he has been saying Harris is going to ban cows. He CLEARLY does not know the difference between someone seeking political asylum and coming from an insane asylum. He has mixed them up 11 times in the last 9 days. He doesn’t know what city or even state he is in most of the time, he has fucked that up 21 times in the last 8 days. He told people FIVE TIMES the other day in Oakes PA to make sure to vote on January 5th.

And speaking of Oakes. What the fuck was that? 38 minutes of standing there dancing on Stage to music?

I don’t know who Omarosa is, I never watched the Apprentice. But on CNN that night, before the Rally, she actually mentioned how this was a bad idea because it was late at night. Most Trump Rallies are in the afternoon. This one didn’t start till 7pm, and being the Diva he is, and challenging his inner Phish he wouldn’t go on stage till after 8pm.

She literally said this rally was a bad idea being that late. She said it was bad because she has known him for 20 years, and he is clearly in the states of dementia, and being that late he wouldn’t be able to focus, and he would “Sundown” and would lose focus. and that they would have to have a distraction to reset when he lost his place. And that after he would be “cranky” the next day and would be off for the next few days. This was said 24 minutes before he came on stage.

When he came on stage, for a Town Hall Meeting. He then proceeded to take 5 questions. Which he answered none of, and what he said made no sense. Then a person in the crowd passed out. They took care of the person and he told his PA person to play “Ave Maria”. Never mind the fact that is like the least appropriate song in that situation, I’ll leave that alone. He then started talking, about something that made no sense., and 4 minutes later someone else “passed out”. At which point, he asked them to play Ave Maria again.

Once they cleared him out, they were going to go back to the questions, at which point he said, and I quote “No More questions. Lets Make this a music mest. Let’s Not Do anymore questions. Let’s Make is music. Who the hell wants to hear questions, right? Isn’t that beautiful.

This was after 5 questions that took 17 minutes, none of which he answered. And these people many of which drove hours, and stood in line for hours. He then proceeded to stand there swaying around for the next 39 minutes while they played a spotify playlist. In the most bizzare thing of all time. And this was a rally that actually was being televised on FOX, NewsMax, OAN, MSNBC, CNN, NewsNation.

Nearly 39 goddamn minutes, sitting there, swaying around aimlessly music, as everyone stood there like WTF?

At one point, well 2 actually, they asked him to take more questions, which he said no. And then even on the Teleprompter (again which he says he does not use, and also why would they have one for a “town hall”) they asked him to take 2 more questions before playing the music.

The thing is, I’ve actually talked to a bunch of MAGA cultists, and told them about this, and literally none of them believe me, and say it’s just a story made up by the liberal media.

It’s not. Outside of Women and Gay Rights, I’m about as far from liberal as you are going to get. It was real. And here it is. the entire 39 minutes, which then he left the stage and that was the end of the rally.

If that was bad enough. Then like Omarosa is some sort of prophet. the next day, he did an interview with the Economic Club of Chicago which was moderated by the Editor of Bloomberg. Jesus Christ, this was one of the worst interviews I have ever seen.

Even the moderator had no idea what the fuck he was saying in a lot of parts. He would ask a question, and Trump would go off on a totally unrelated tangent. Like when he asked about the SEC breaking up Google for Anti Trust Violation, but instead he talked about the DOJ doing election interference in Virginia.

The moderator numerous times had to be like “Ok, but that has nothing to do with what I asked”

At one point he asked him a question about the federal reserve, and he went into some nonsense that made no sense about the French President Macron. Even the moderator who was actually being crazy polite was like “Mr President I have no idea what yoiu are even talking about”

At this point Trump went into his “Weave”. So this started 2 weeks ago. When he talks, and gets confused and everything he says turns onto gibberish with 12 different things at the same time that have ZERO contexts with each other. He has started telling the people, no, he’s not retarded, it’s actually “the weave”

Umm, no, this isn’t “the weave”

This is literally, and I mean LITERALLY, the very definition of Word Salad. Yet another sign of dementia.

He is not capable of keeping a single thought together for more than like 30 seconds.

This interview was bad. And I mean SUPER bad. It turned out just like Omarosa said, being the next day. We was confused, and super angry. If you have 90 minutes to waste, and you want to see one of the worst interviews of all time with with lies and shit you will NEVER be able to understand, here you go.

Then, the last couple days, just like the Omarosa chick said how he would have to take time off to rest. He has cancelled 6 interviews in the next few days, including things like NBC, CNBC, and even an appearance at the NRA convention.

In 2016 he did an ungodly 298 rallies. Crazy number. But this year he has only done 67. Back in 2016 his average speech time was 39.7 minutes. And would get people fired up. This year his average time is 94.6 minutes, most of which goes off the rails into nonsense like fictional people, windmills, people eating pets, getting confused and thinking Biden is still running, going off on Obama, and SUPER racist Bullshit, where in 37. Literally thirty goddamn seven rallies. He had used, not paraphrased or like minded statements, but actual, FULL GODDAMN ACTUAL quotes from Hitler. 37 times. Also 12 from Mussolini for anyone keeping count. And 72 from his buddy Putin. Full sentences. Not words. Full sentences. Meaning someone, like his speech writers, actually knew these before hand and put them in there.

He has actually done other shit like calling January 6th a “Day Of Love”. He refers to the capital rioters and “we” and the police as “them”. Claims hundreds of thousands of people came because they thought it was a rigged election (it was 40,000, not 100s of 1000). Says he told the people going to the capital to go “peacefully and patriotically” When in reality he told them to go and “fight like hell”. Said it was done perfectly. Said nobody was killed. Actually 7 people died. He said there were “No Guns”. I’m not going to make this post a million words. But you can refer to the J6 committee and and all of the videos and police audio, and things taken from Telegraph and Twitter. As well as the Secret Service audio at the Ellipse. There were at least 237 people with guns. including 3 of the 5 people at the door when Ashlie Babbit was shot by Capital Police. He said there were only a tiny percentage of people who went to the capital. Actually, it was like all of them. Especially after he told them “I will walk down there with you and fight” which he didn’t do obviously. then again calls it a Day of Love. And then tried to blame the fact people were appalled was on Hilary Clinton.

It was the worst answer I ever heard, and when I told people they didn’t believe me. Yet here it is

I could go on and on and give you 1000 hours of examples. Again I BEG people to watch even just 1 of his rallies. NOT fox news interview cause they edit the shit out of them. But the Rallies that are uncut.

There is ZERO way you could think this guy is OK outside of lying to yourself.

But even then. Again, this guy is like a fucking cult that people will lie even to themselves and convince themselves he is good. 40 out of 44 of his cabinet members refuse to endorse him. There is not a single. NOT A SINGLE Previous GOP president, Vice President, Sec of Defence, Chief of Staff, Sec of State, or AG that will endorse him. NOT ONE. Which they go back 55 years. NOT ONE. But meanwhile you have people like Dick Fucking Cheney supporting Harris.

Because as a certain point. It’s not about policy. You HAVE to realize there is something wrong here. If you support Trump you ARE fucked up. This goes back to what I said a million years ago in this post. There are a lot of people I know that are TERRIBLE racists, and don;t even know it. They swear they aren’t but literally everyone around them knows they are.

It’s a cult of personality.

But with all of this said. How do I think the 2024 election is going to end up and who is going to win?

Again I don’t care about polls. I care about facts. I look at early voting, and I pay attention to actual people who are around me.

Here is the thing. Again 44 of the states this time around do not matter at all (fuck you North Carolina, with you bullshit polls Trump; is winning that easily)

Shit. I mean.

Mike Pence, His VP “Anyone who puts himself over the Constitution should never be president of the United States”

Bill Bar, AG “Someone who engaged in that kind of bullying about a process that is fundamental to our system and to our self-government shouldn’t be anywhere near the Oval Office”

Mark Milley, Joint chief of Staff” He is the most dangerous person ever. I had suspicions when I talked to you about his mental decline and so forth, but now I realize he’s a total fascist. He is the most dangerous person to this country…A fascist to the core!’

James Mattis, Sec of Defence: “Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people – does not even pretend to try. Instead he tries to divide us.”

Mark Esper, 2nd Sec of Defence, “I think he’s unfit for office. … He puts himself before country. His actions are all about him and not about the country. And then, of course, I believe he has integrity and character issues as well”

Rex Tillerson, Sec of State “(Trump’s) understanding of global events, his understanding of global history, his understanding of US history was really limited. It’s really hard to have a conversation with someone who doesn’t even understand the concept for why we’re talking about this.”

Nikki Haley, UN Ambassador. “He used to be good on foreign policy and now he has started to walk it back and get weak in the knees when it comes to Ukraine. A terrible thing happened on January 6 and he called it a beautiful day.”

HR McMaster, National Security advisor. “We saw the absence of leadership, really anti-leadership, and what that can do to our country.”

John Bolton, 3rd National Security advisor: “I believe foreign leaders think he is a laughing fool. He has no idea what is he doing and just bowing down to fascists”

John Kelly, Chief of Staff : “A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law. There is nothing more that can be said. God help us.”

Anthony Scaramucci, Communications director: “He is the domestic terrorist of the 21st century.”

Stephanie Grisham, Communications Director (since they quit every few weeks trying to say his bullshit”: “I am terrified of him running in 2024.”

Richard Spencer, Secretary of the Navy: “…the president has very little understanding of what it means to be in the military, to fight ethically or to be governed by a uniform set of rules and practices.”

Tom Bossett, National Security Secretary: “The President undermined American democracy baselessly for months. As a result, he’s culpable for this siege, and an utter disgrace.”

Ty Cobb, White House legal Counsel: “Trump relentlessly puts forth claims that are not true.”

Sarah Matthews, Deputy Press Secretary: “I thought that he did do a lot of good during his four years. I think that his actions on January 6 and the lead-up to it, the way that he’s acted in the aftermath, and his continuation of pushing this lie that the election is stolen has made him wholly unfit to hold office every again.”

Cassidy Hutchinson, Top Aid to Mike Pence: “I think that Donald Trump is the most grave threat we will face to our democracy in our lifetime, and potentially in American history.”

I could actually go on and on. There are literally, and I;m not kidding here, literally thousands of quotes from people who worked under Trump and told people how bad it was. I mean shit like the hurricane’s where he used the sharpie.

Just to put this in contect, of how many people who were in Sr positions

George Bush Sr had 11 books written about his nonsense.

Bill Clinton had 98 books against him

George W Bush had 109 books written against him

Barak Obama had 73 books written against him

Donald Trump had had 593 books written against him

Joe Biden has had 27 books written against him.

Just look at those3 numbers, what does that tell you. Look

In PA there have been around 900,000 early ballots returned already. and they break SUPER for Dems. There is a Firewall of almost 300,000 votes so far for the Dems and adding almost 15k a day. But by the same time same day ballots are going to happen, it may be a 500,000 Dem vote firewall happening.

In Georgia. Before this election, the most votes they got in Early voting in a single day was 130,019. After 4 days of early voting this year, they are at 1,135,684 which is already 25% of the entire vote in 2020. And these early ballots are breaking HARD in the Dems Favor. In Fulton, Cobb, dekalb, Gwinnett, and Chatham counties, which are counties that broke Democrat by over 20% they are making over half of the total early voting.

Then in PA. They actually break out the early voting returns by party. It is breaking CRAZY in Harris favor

Already over 20% of all PA voters have already voted. And we still have like 18 days of early voting left. But there is a 294,305 vote firewall already in place?

In Michigan there is already has over a million returned ballots almost all in super democrat areas.

If you actually take the time and look at the REAL votes that have been cast. What does this tell you?

It’s so easy to manipulate.

So we’re 2 weeks and a few days away. Which to me, if FAR more tim ethan you need with these bullshit numbers for nonsense. to me it’s pretty obvious who is going to win the 2024 election.

The winner of the 2024 election is going to be (without doubt)………..

Donald Trump.

You are a goddamn idiot if you think anything other. And I’ll tell you way.

First off there aren’t many states that even matter. And even in the 7 swing states? No. It’s heard voting. And bullshit polls. There is ZERO chance that Harris wins Arizona, Nevada, or North Carolina. None. Zero. Not happening.

Georgia is the weird one. Right now, literally thins very minute, GA sec of state posts all of the ballots, including early ballots. And these numbers are huge. SUPER huge.

The same thing is going on in PA. The reality is that right now, at this very second, There are 297,000 more Dems votes bankes from early voting.

I have LITERALLY nothing to actually back me up on this.

But I just don’t get it.

I have the people I know. Literally policy makes no difference. It is, 100% about racism, sexism, and zoophobia.

This is actually the reason why I think Trump is going to win. There were TONS of people who were in the closet. That didn’t come out and actually tell people.

However now days it’s normal. the GOP had the whole Nazi Sympathizers But they don’t even try. And literally, and I mean LITERALLY no news organizations care.

This week Trump had a boat rollay in Florida. And what was there?

Oh don’t care about that?

How about this one?

Wait, ok. So that’s not enough?

Cause again, literally NO ONE cares. Well how about Eric Trump who was also there in the Boat Rally, with all the Nazi assholes?

No one cares. Honestly. FUCKING NO ONE

Seriously.

There are about 2,000 things Trump had done which would make him totally disqualified from ever running for president again. And I’m leaving out all his indictments.

But in his 9 years, he had done one thing.

Well, 2 things.

First, he has absolutely mind fucked people.

There are literally, MILLIONS of people who =but into his bullshit. And it is bullshit.

He has no platform what so ever, outside of, hate the people I hate. Literally nothing.

He sits there and talks about illegal aliens. But he had, and none of his dick suckers understand, what the difference is between Illegal, Alien, and Migrants. But he is TOO fucking stupid to even realize the difference.

The sad thing is all the MAGA idiots are the same. The just call everything “illegal” but they actually have not a single goddamnn thing that they know about. I suggest they read the Immigration Act of 1924. or Refugee act of 1951. And Refugee Act of 1980.

Read them.

I say again. Read them.

When you try to talk about how you feel about “illegals” you are 10000000% wrong. You can say the stupid shit you want to, but we have THREE laws on the books. So every time, you get a boner for shit like “build a wall”. Or even worse how Trup said, just, stupid ass shit, like “We’re going to deport a bagillion people”. If you buy this? You’re a fucking idiots.

First off, we have endless laws that say. umm.. not how it works. But even more than that. How the hell do you expect to deliver people? Think you’re going to put them on a plane and place them somewhere? Umm…. that’s not the way it works. If you have some US plane and you’re like “hey colombia We’re gonna land a plane and let off 1,000 random weirdos we deported. You think they are going to OK a flight plan?

Not a chance.

First off the destination city will be like, nah, we’re good. So you are NEVER going to get a flight plan. So what are you going to do? Just drop them off in the ocean?

It’s so stupid. But the fact there are literally millions of people that follow this idiot.

He has absolutely no interest in America what so ever. All he wants to do is his bullshit grifting and make money. Yet there are still millions of idiots who thing that he gives even the tiniest shit about you?

And worse is the fact that there are literally millions of people who know better. But they will suck his dick all day long.

I am an actual, REAL conservative. I do not bevelive is most of the liberal ideologically. But there is a certain point when you have to actually give up and actually show country over party.

There is NOTHING I would love more, than for Trump to lose. and for the GOP to Reset. And we can get back to actual real conservative values. But that is NEVER going to happen under Trump. He HAS to lose.

And if you are an actual republican, or claim to be, bur you buy into the Trump Bullshit, then you actually aren’t a republican. You are nothing more than a cultists. You can say all the bullshit you want, and try to make excuses, but you are. Shut the fuck up, stop sucking your own dick, you are a cultist, no matter what you think.

Because there is NO FUCKING WAY

Trump should ever be elected again.

However, he is going to Win in 2024. I don’t care what the polls say. fuck them. Trump is going to win, and he is going to win pretty big.

And the reason sis going to be racism, Lol,, there have been exactly 0, ZERO pieces of legislation from republicans for Border stuff in 24 years,

I’m not kidding. 34 years. ZERO

The last thing, absolute LAST thing that the GOP wants fixed is border stuff. It’s like they ONLY thing they run off of. If you actually, REALLY care about border stuff. You need to vote Dem. They have had 11 things in the last 34 years. Although every one got shut down by Republicans.

Dave Jolly (C- FL)

Paul Ryan (speaker of the house)

Joe Scarborough (C – FL)

Michael Steele (Head of Republican Committee)

Adam Kinzinger (C – IL)

Liz Cheney (C- WY)

John Bernard (Speaker of the house)

I could actually go on for at least 90 people. These are all Republicans who said, flat out said and can out and said, that the republican party have ZERO interest in actually fixing the border. For them it makes no sense, They bring in Billions. with a B. Billions of cash. If they didn;t have THAT to try to bring money in, what would they do? There isn’t another GOP topic outside of Guns, which post 2018 no one gioves a shit about.

So Trump talks bullshit. And there is only this percent that cares, and this percent that doesn’t care.

This is why I’m 100% sure Trump til win.

49 states mean absolutely nothing. Nothing.

The only, and I mean ONLY state that matters in 2924 is PA

I spend a lot of tim ein PA. As of the writing of this, I’m actually in PA right now.

You cannot understand the whole bit of racism an dsexism. I literally cannot put this into words, or do anything that would help. There are going to be 1000s of “Bude Bro” people vote. I cannot stress enough the amount of racism. Which you might win random suburb areas. But going going to get KILLED in the burbs

Anyhow. I’m just goin to keep Trump stuff in my side pouch. I hope with every fiber of my body that he dose NOT win.

Buti I’m pretty sure he is going to, and it’s gonna be because if the “dude bros”

Trump has his Ceiling. He will BEVER get over 48%

However Harris, while she cold get a ceiling of 53% It’ll never happen

My Prediction

Harris will win the Actual National Vote by 3.7%

However, that means literally nothing. \

My actual end way, Is this, with a Trump win, literally because of racism

But anyhow, if you actually wanna see my map? Which I am 96% sire is going to be right,. Here it is. And Trumo wins